Ohio’s economy could take a significant hit after Canadian leaders announced retaliatory tariffs Tuesday. Canada’s finance minister, François-Philippe Champagne, promised to match American tariffs “dollar for dollar, and rate for rate.” Canada’s tariffs are set to take effect Sept. 8.

The move comes after the Trump administration imposed a new round of 50% tariffs on a wide array of Canadian-made goods. The administration justified its action by insisting Canada was discriminating against American-made cars, dairy, and alcohol.

While the complaints are narrow and specific, the scope of Trump’s new tariffs is anything but. The motley assortment of goods includes plywood products, textiles, cosmetics, seeds, tools, machinery, electronics, furniture, and sporting goods.

All told, the Trump administration’s list touches about $20 billion in imports.

“For each product,” Champagne promised, “our tariff would match the American tariff on the same type of Canadian good.”

The Canadian list includes many similar product categories and accounts for a comparable dollar amount of imports from the U.S.

And Canadian officials are taking longer term steps to bolster their economy for the coming trade war. The government is planning a $7.5 billion package to prop up Canadian businesses and help support workers who lose their jobs.

President Trump warned on social media that he’s “giving serious consideration” to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.

Paying coming and going

Canada is Ohio’s biggest export market. In 2025, Ohio sent $17.5 billion in goods across the border — roughly a third of the state’s total exports.

“And that’s more than the next four highest trading partners combined,” Scioto Analysis Principal Rob Moore said. “Mexico, China, France, and the United Kingdom don’t even add up to that.”

More than half of Ohio’s total exports to Canada come from the equipment and machinery or transportation industries.

Meanwhile, Ohio imported about $16 billion in goods from Canada last year. Crude oil accounted for the biggest share at $3.2 billion. But Ohio brought in at least half a billion dollars’ worth of car parts, plastics, aluminum, and iron and steel alloy products.

“I mean you’re seeing what this is,” Moore said, “It’s the automobile industry. This decision is going to make it very difficult for folks in the automobile supply chain to be able to succeed in Ohio.”

And because goods will soon face tariffs whether traveling north or south of the U.S.-Canada border, Ohio companies could feel the pinch twice.

Ian Sheldon, an Ohio State University economist focusing on agriculture and international trade, points to the automotive industry.

Since the early 1990s, the industry has become deeply integrated across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, spurred on by the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Now, raw materials and components often cross North American borders several times as a vehicle is assembled.

“There is a potential for the automobile parts sector in Ohio, which is part of this highly integrated value chain, to be hurt by U.S. tariffs on what comes from Canada, and these retaliatory tariffs that Canada’s putting place against the United States,” Sheldon said.

GM and Stellantis both have a presence in Democratic U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo-area district.

In a statement she said, “We should be working to open and expand new export markets for Ohio farmers and ranchers, and our domestic companies headquartered in Northwest Ohio, not cutting off existing markets.”

“It is my hope that this Administration comes to its senses and pursues common-sense trade policies that benefit Ohioans,” Kaptur continued, “and not waste time with petty beefs and self-defeating squabbles.”

What’s next

Sheldon thinks the Trump administration may have launched this trade war to gain leverage in talks to renew the USMCA trade agreement.

This year, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada had an opportunity to extend the deal for another 16 years, but negotiations broke down after the U.S. refused to sign on.

Trump himself insisted on the negotiating the USMCA during his first administration. Less than a month before winning the 2024 election, he was insisting the deal’s predecessor, NAFTA, was “the worst trade deal ever made” while the USMCA was the best.

The USMCA remains in effect for now, and the countries will review it annually, but Sheldon sees a “huge risk” to the agreement going forward.

The U.S. undermined the agreement, he said, by sidestepping existing dispute resolution systems to launch a trade war instead. And Sheldon explained there’s additional weapons available if the countries want to continue their tit-for-tat escalation.

“I think there’s quite a lot of pressure being put on the Canadian government to impose export taxes on those important inputs like oil, gas, electricity and possibly fertilizers,” he said.

“I think if that were to happen, that would cause a considerable amount of damage not just to Ohio but to states that trade extensively with Canada.”

Moore offered a similarly gloomy outlook. If the trade war drags on, higher production costs in the immediate term and uncertainty in the long term will start affecting people’s jobs.

“Trade wars are destructive,” Moore said. “They’re going to make goods more expensive, which is going to make people in Ohio, especially low-income people in Ohio, poorer. They’re going to cost jobs, which is going to end up impacting families today, and also the children in those families and their future prospects.”

“We’re going to feel this now,” he added, “and we’re going to feel it for decades into the future.”

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This story is republished from the Ohio Capital Journal under a Creative Commons license. View the original article.