Heating costs are projected to increase for American households this winter, partly due to rising fuel costs caused by President Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Home heating costs are anticipated to rise by almost 9% this winter, according to a recent analysis from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, a policy organization composed of state directors of low-income energy assistance programs. The analysis predicted households would spend an additional $1,030 on average for heating this winter, up $82 over the year prior.
The organization attributed the higher prices to higher electricity and heating oil costs.
Across the United States, more than 275 electric and natural gas utilities have increased rates, received approval for increases, or proposed increases since 2025, with potential added costs to customers exceeding $101 billion through 2028, NEADA reported.
Heating oil costs were $3.68 per gallon from October through December 2025, federal data shows. After Trump launched military attacks in Iran in late February and Iran began blocking oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, heating oil costs are expected to climb to $5.66 per gallon during the same time period this year.
“This is a warning that too many families are entering winter with no room left in their budgets,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, in a Sept. 14 press release. “They have already experienced record high summer cooling costs and now they are facing home heating costs that are rising more than twice the rate of inflation.”
As costs grow and temperatures begin to drop, the group expressed concern over the possibility that households that can’t pay their bills could be disconnected from utilities. It reported that, in 2024, utilities disconnected electric service approximately 13.4 million times and natural gas service approximately 1.7 million times for nonpayment.
The greatest impact will be felt by heating oil customers, whose bills are projected to increase by roughly 31% this winter. In the winter of 2023–2024, about 4.79 million American households used heating oil as their primary heating source, with about 82% of those households in the Northeastern states, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Families that rely on electric heating and propane are projected to see costs rise by 9%, while households using natural gas are expected to see heating costs increase by about 6% percent.
Overall, energy costs have increased roughly 24% since the winter of 2021-22.
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association said winter heating costs may be mitigated by this year’s El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that brings with it unusually warmer winter temperatures and could reduce the amount of energy households need to heat their homes.
