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Democrats would need a perfect political storm to flip any of Ohio’s Republican-held congressional districts.
Increasingly, they think one could be brewing in a Cleveland-area district Trump won by 11 points.
Ohio’s 7th Congressional District is held by Rep. Max Miller, a former Trump aide who’s represented the district since 2022. Democrats hope Brian Poindexter, a union official and council member in Brook Park, will overperform in the district thanks to his blue-collar background and roots in the legacy Ford factory town.
“I think Brian’s building things up,” said Dave Brock, chairman of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party. “And if we’re going to have a Blue Wave, this is going to be one of the seats we can get.”
“If anybody else won the primary, they were essentially going to concede it to Miller,” Brock added. “With Brian, we’ve got a shot.”
Jim Renacci, a Republican who held the seat in the 2010s, said this year’s political environment reminds him of 2018. He ran for U.S. Senate that year, losing to Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown by 6 percentage points even as Republicans won every other partisan statewide office.
“Do I think Max Miller’s going to win that seat? Yes,” Renacci said. “Do I think it’s close? Yes. Do I think he’s going to spend a lot of money? Yes.”
Why Democrats like their odds
Democrats see three fronts converging over the 7th Congressional District: a candidate with a biography that fits the district, an incumbent Republican in the middle of a tabloid-fodder divorce and a national political climate that historically hurts the party holding the White House.
The district consists of Cuyahoga County’s affluent western suburbs, its more blue-collar or exurban southern suburbs, as well as Medina, Wayne and part of Ashland counties.
The district, on balance, is safe Republican. But the path to victory for a Democrat would include doing well in Parma and nearby Brook Park – communities that elect Democrats to local office, but which Trump won in 2024. Sherrod Brown won the district by four percentage points in 2018, even as he won statewide by six points – showing a Democrat can win in the district, even if it’s very tough to do so.
Democrats officially rate the 7th Congressional District as a second-tier priority – it and two other Ohio districts appear on a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee list of “in play” districts. The DCCC’s “Red to Blue” district list, meanwhile, represents Republicans they view as being easier to defeat, based on their districts’ designs. None of those are in Ohio.
Ohio’s 7th District was not included in an initial reservation of ads placed earlier this year by the House Majority PAC, a political action committee associated with House Democrats. Data provided to Signal Statewide by Medium Buying, a Republican firm in Columbus that tracks political spending, confirmed that hasn’t changed.
Instead, Democrats have made small initial ad reservations in the two other “in play” Republican-held districts in Ohio where Trump won by at least 10 points – the 10th Congressional District, represented by Dayton Rep. Mike Turner, and 15th District, represented by Columbus Rep. Mike Carey.
But Democrats recently have grown more bullish on the 7th District as the best of the three potential pickup opportunities, specifically because of the head-to-head matchup between Poindexter and Miller.
Part of that is due to the candidates’ personal backgrounds. Poindexter worked odd jobs before getting involved with the building trades at age 27. He became a union ironworker, working on construction sites before later taking a position as an apprentice instructor at the Ironworkers Local 17 training center**.**
Miller, in turn, is a member of one of Cleveland’s wealthiest families, which got rich by founding and later selling Forest City Enterprises, a real-estate company. After getting a job as a trusted political aide for Trump, Miller ran for Congress in 2022, vowing to defeat then-Rep. Anthony Gonzalez for voting to impeach Trump in 2020. Gonzalez dropped out, and Miller won the seat comfortably.
Democrats aren’t saying how. But they’ve signaled they may make a political issue out of Miller’s messy divorce.
Emily Moreno has accused Miller of abusing her in court filings tied to their 2025 divorce. Miller has denied the allegation, and countersued Moreno for defamation. It’s not the first time Miller has sued an ex – in 2021, he sued Stephanie Grisham, a former aide to First Lady Melania Trump, for defamation after Grisham accused Miller of abusing her toward the end of their relationship. Comments Miller made about Grisham in connection to his divorce led Grisham to sue him this week, accusing him of violating a non-disparagement clause in their eventual legal settlement.
Miller also made some state Republicans cringe with a post in May in which he called out his former father-in-law, U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno, for funding and enabling “his daughter’s malicious campaign to ruin my life.”
Tabloids and other non-Ohio media have followed along, providing coverage complete with photos, statements from lawyers and police videos.
Several race-rating websites cited the divorce in part when they recently downgraded Miller’s chances of getting reelected. The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections still view Republicans as likely to win the district, but now give Democrats a chance of winning. This distinction could force Republicans to change their plans and unexpectedly defend the seat if Democrats see enough of a political opening to fund ads in the district.
Likely trying to entice potential donors, Poindexter’s campaign released an internal poll last week that it said showed Miller with a narrow 44%-43% lead. Perhaps more notably, it showed Trump’s disapproval rate at 54%, which would be a dramatic shift in sentiment from the president’s double-digit victory.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in an interview called the Ohio 7th Congressional District race a “sleeper.”
“I think there’s something going on there. Miller’s favored – but I could see it being competitive,” Kondik said.
Tom Coyne, a Republican former mayor of Brook Park, is among those who think Poindexter could win.
Coyne, a vocal Trump supporter and former longtime Democrat, said in an interview that some district voters may have soured on the president due to the war in Iran. Coyne said he personally supports Trump’s rationale for attacking the country, but said the president has done a poor job at explaining it. He also said there are independent voters in the region who support Trump but aren’t wedded to either major party.
“If Brian runs an independent campaign on his own, on working man’s values, then I think he has a good chance,” Coyne said. “If he is part of the Bernie Sanders total program there with [New York City Mayor Zohran] Mamdani and company, I would be shocked if Brook Park would support that.”
Kevin Kussmaul, a Republican city councilman in Parma, said Miller has delivered for Parma since getting elected to Congress, such as by helping attract federal funding to deal with flooding issues, and maintaining close ties with the city’s large Iranian-American population.
“I don’t think there’s a hesitation not to vote for Max,” said Kussmaul, the first elected Republican to serve on Parma City Council since the 1980s. “But they’re very cognizant of prices right now. So, it will be very interesting to see what happens on the national front, and what President Trump does for the rest of the summer.”
The Bernie factor
Poindexter won a crowded primary election in May, thanks to eclectic support that unified more left-wing and centrist elements of the Democratic Party coalition.
Several voters interviewed for this story said they became interested in Poindexter after he got an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, of Vermont. Sanders came to Parma Heights the Friday before the election to hold a rally for Poindexter.
In his remarks, Sanders name-dropped New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who’s become increasingly influential on the left since getting elected last summer. The audience cheered, according to a recording posted by Sanders’ political operation. Mamdani has other ties to Poindexter – they also share a consulting firm, FIGHT Agency, which helped Mamdani in his improbable victory, and is backing progressive and union-backed Democratic candidates in other high-profile races.
“What we are trying to do, with, I think, some success, and with Brian’s help… is build a new political movement in this country,” Sanders said.
Meanwhile, a PAC funded by Anthropic, the AI company, spent $1 million on pro-Poindexter ads, while a PAC associated with Blue Dog Coalition, a centrist Democratic group, spent another $360,000 on pro-Poindexter mailers, according to federal campaign finance records.
Poindexter said in an interview he doesn’t know why the AI-affiliated group spent money on his race. But he said it shows that someone with resources decided the district is winnable for a Democrat.
“I think they see in me somebody who can win this seat, and they made the decision to invest in the race,” he said.
Clayton Henson, Miller’s campaign manager, cited the late pro-Poindexter spending spree in a statement provided for this story.
“Congressman Miller will be reelected. A special interest PAC bought a primary win for Poindexter against a group of underfunded candidates. That’s not an option for the general election. Over the course of this campaign, voters will learn about every extreme position Poindexter has taken.”
National and state Republicans in turn have tried to tie other Democratic candidates in Ohio to Mamdani, and are likely to do the same with Poindexter.
Zach Bannon, a spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee, issued a statement for this story that offers a preview of what to expect from Republicans if the race becomes competitive.
“Radical far-left liberals are working to bring the socialist wave to Ohio through Democrat Brian Poindexter,” Bannon said. “With support from Mamdani’s Working Families Party and AOC’s Progressive Caucus to Bernie Sanders himself, Poindexter has proven he’s all-in for socialism which is one of many reasons he will be rejected this fall.”
‘I’m not a Democratic socialist‘
Poindexter has held a couple town hall rallies since securing the Democratic nomination, first in affluent, suburban Bay Village in late June and then again last week in Brook Park.
About 40 people filled green plastic chairs in a library conference room to watch Poindexter, who gave a 10-minute speech before fielding questions for another 30 minutes or so.
During his speech, Poindexter described how he was first inspired to run for office in 2016, when he saw Sanders speak at Cleveland State University while campaigning for president that year.
“I liked what Bernie had to say, because he was saying the things that I knew were wrong,” Poindexter said. “Working people were working harder and getting less.” Fast-forwarding a decade, Poindexter said he was floored when Sanders agreed to speak at his campaign rally in May.
“It was,” Poindexter said, “like Santa Claus coming to your house for Christmas dinner. It was the best gift I could ever get.”
Poindexter then immediately pivoted to playing pre-emptive defense.
“A lot of people don’t like Bernie Sanders’ politics,” Poindexter said. “A lot of people in our area go, ‘He’s a Democratic Socialist.’ And that’s a big buzzword right now on all the cable networks and stuff, right? But I also think a lot of people in our district respect Bernie Sanders, because he’s stood firm on what he’s been fighting for for so long.”
Poindexter made a similar point in an interview following the event when asked how he thought Sanders’ backing might play in his Trump-supporting district.
“Even the people who don’t agree with Sen. Sanders’ politics respect his commitment to the things he cares about… So, I think it’s a net positive. And regardless of what people think, I’m proud to have his support.”
During the event in Brook Park, an audience member asked Poindexter about the term “Democratic socialist,” which has increased in cachet after left-wing candidates won congressional Democratic Primary elections last month in New York and Colorado.
“How do you embrace people who are going to accuse you of being a commie, because I’m dealing with the same thing myself,” she said.
“They see a ‘D’ next to my name, and they go, ‘Oh, you’re a commie,” Poindexter said. He went on to say that Democratic Socialists are part of the Democratic tent, but so are moderate Democratic groups, who also support his campaign.
“I’m not a Democratic Socialist, if that’s what people want to hear,” he said. “However, they have some ideas I like, like lifting the cap on Social Security.”
Poindexter went on to name-drop a senatorial Bernie who supports the idea – Sen. Bernie Moreno, the Ohio Republican.
The Sanders’ endorsement likely played well with the audience at the library, some of whom wore T-shirts that promoted the Cuyahoga County Progressive Caucus and the Working Families Party.
Nan Mager, a retired prison therapist who lives in Fairview Park, said she voted for Poindexter in the primary election after learning that Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna, a Sanders-aligned Democratic congressman from California, had endorsed him. She said she thinks Poindexter is the right candidate to defeat Miller, with his background as an ironworker contrasting with Miller’s background coming from generational wealth.
“I’m hoping Brian can break through to people who are suffering financially because of what’s happening in Washington,” Mager said.
Another attendee, Sam Sheffield, also cited the Sanders endorsement as a positive in an interview. He said he also liked Poindexter’s views on workers’ rights.
Finally, Sheffield, a lawyer from Seven Hills, said he thinks Poindexter “would be the strongest candidate to take on Max Miller.”
“And I think unseating Max Miller was probably my primary motivation.”
Nickie Antonio, a Lakewood lawmaker who’s the top Democrat in the state senate, said a decade ago, she would have thought Sanders was too “far left” to be an effective campaign asset in Ohio.
“Today in 2026, Bernie is speaking the truth of where we’re at in this country,” said Antonio, who spoke at the Sanders-Poindexter rally in May. “It is so far to the right, they are so far to the extreme, that Bernie is talking about issues that affect the middle, as well as anybody on any side of the middle,” Antonio said.
Signal Ohio is a nonprofit news organization covering government, education, health, economy and public safety.
